INS Vikramaditya

INS Vikramaditya

On Jan 20/04 India and Russia signed a $947 million deal to refurbish and convert the Soviet/Russian Admiral Gorshkov into a full carrier, to be re-named Vikramaditya. The announced delivery date for  Vikramaditya  was August 2008 – an ambitious schedule, but one that would allow the carrier to enter service in 2009, around the time as their 29,000t light carrier INs Viraat  (formerly HMS Hermes, last of the Centaur class) was scheduled to retire. The new carrier would berth at the karwar on India’s west coast.

That was the plan. Unfortunately, the Vikramaditya story is sadly typical of both Indian defense procurement, and of Russia’s defense industry.

Initial reports of delays sparked controversy and denials in India, but subsequent events more than justified them. Slow negotiations and steadily-lengthening delivery times quickly pushed delivery of the Gorshkov back to 2010, and then to 2012 or later, even as Russia’s asking price more than doubled. India’s sunk construction costs, Russian possession of the Gorshkov, the difficulty in finding a substitute carrier to replace the Gorshkov sooner than 2013, and the Chinese push with the Varyag, have all combined to give the Russians substantial leverage in their negotiations. They have exploited that leverage to the fullest.

Cost estimates and reports concerning the Gorshkov’s final total now hover in the $2.9 billion range, following the revised project agreement of March 2010.

As is customary with Indian defense procurement, transparency arrived only after after all other alternatives had been exhausted.

Neither assessment turned out to be true, nor subsequent updates proved  the critics  to be correct. After the delivery delays could no longer be denied, the initial approach was to minimize their length. February 2008 news reports, however, began to give figures of up to 3-4 years before refurbishment and testing could allow the ship to enter service. Subsequent reports by Indian and Russian sources stressed 2012, or even later.

Those estimates, at least, turned out to be true. INS Viraat’s retirement was moved to 2012 – but it soon became clear that even that might not be late enough. The ship was scheduled to retire in 2009, but events forced India into another refit, leaving the country without a carrier for almost a year. Even with the refit, Viraat nearing the limits of her mechanical life, and shortages of flyable sea harrier fighters are creating issues of their own.

India’s locally-built Vikrant Class escort carrier project won’t be a solution either, as its delivery date appears to be slipping to 2017 or later.

This leaves India’s Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force. They hoped that Vikramaditya’s induction at the end of 2012 will allow them to field a credible carrier strike group some time in 2013, but basic engineering flaws mean that even the handover isn’t likely to take place until late 2013.

Meanwhile, China is working hard to refurbish the 58,000t ex-Russian carrier Varyag, and has begun tests as of 2012. In September 2012, reports surfaced that the ship would be named “Liaoning,” in honor of the province where it was retrofitted.